CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-30T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36723/-1
CME Note: Flux rope CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. CME not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source is a filament eruption seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. As this arrival signature indicates frontal impact of a CME, this is more likely the effect of the more central faint 2025-01-30T17:48Z CME rather than a glancing blow from the 2025-01-30T16:12Z CME, however both CMEs have the same filament as a source.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-02T12:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 570
Longitude (deg): E029
Latitude (deg): S27
Half-angular width (deg): 27

Notes: Low confidence. Multi-stage filament eruption but incorporated into this single CME. Glancing impact most likely.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 20.92 hour(s)
Difference: -13.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-02-01T01:30Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy